CPI and PPI correlation

Today US PPI comes out very bad
and there will be CPI News tomorrow


Major US bank noting that over the last 15 years of monthly data, the correlation between cpi and ppi is 0.17%!!!
so better watch out tomorrow CPI for better outlook of US Inflation indicator

happy trading guyz!

Trade The News is Dying... or Will be

after talking with a few folks I realize that most forex brokers dont even
send your orders to the real Interbank market. They only send them out when
the way you are trading is a wining direction. Eg, long on GBP on a bad usd
NFP.

two reasons for this:

1. They cant find enough sellers to support your buying, hence the spike in
the candle. (which is not generated solely by the big boys)

2. They realize you will win and they cant afford it. So they send you to
the interbank market.

most time when u have a stop loss, it's the brokers pocket that gets your
cash.

why?

because they (or their software) realized the position you are about to take
may never give you a profit hence, they allowed your order (easy fills) and
never send it to interbank market...just exchange across their dealing desk.

so folks like me who trades 20, 50 and 60 lots will find it difficult to get
fills as no one is really selling at that point, unless they are selling to
get out of a position that is going against them...eg: getting out of a
short position when the eco data says long

when u get SL, you suffer, they win.

Just remember guys, the reason you cant get filled during news time is
because no one is willing to trade against eco data that can move the market
100 pips.

a next thing: the real interbank market trades 100k lots and higher on avg.


Credit : Victor Iwan@fx_trader_indonesia

NEWS Lover : Weekly News Quality Trade

for those who love to trade news
here are the lists for major news



I prefer to trade 5 star news quality

---------------------------------------------------------

PPI
August 15, 2006
8:30 AM EST
Rating: 5 Stars
Quality Trades: 88%
True Spikes: 69%
Reversals: 19%
Average High: 54 pips

---------------------------------------------------------

NET FOREIGN PURCHASES
August 15, 2006
9:00 AM EST
Rating: 5 Stars
Quality Trades: 86%
True Spikes: 86%
Reversals: 29%
Average High: 46 pips

---------------------------------------------------------

BUILDING PERMITS
August 16, 2006
8:30 AM EST
Rating: 3 Stars
Quality Trades: 69%
True Spikes: 75%
Reversals: 19%
Average High: 47 pips

---------------------------------------------------------

HOUSING STARTS
August 16, 2006
8:30 AM EST
Rating: 3 Stars
Quality Trades: 69%
True Spikes: 75%
Reversals: 19%
Average High: 47 pips

---------------------------------------------------------

CPI
August 16, 2006
8:30 AM EST
Rating: 5 Stars
Quality Trades: 81%
True Spikes: 69%
Reversals: 38%
Average High: 57 pips

---------------------------------------------------------

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
August 16, 2006
9:15 AM EST
Rating: 3 Stars
Quality Trades: 63%
True Spikes: 50%
Reversals: 19%
Average High: 42 pips

---------------------------------------------------------

CAPACITY UTILIZATION
August 16, 2006
9:15 AM EST
Rating: 3 Stars
Quality Trades: 63%
True Spikes: 50%
Reversals: 19%
Average High: 42 pips

---------------------------------------------------------

INITIAL CLAIMS
August 17, 2006
8:30 AM EST
Rating: 5 Stars
Quality Trades: 80%
True Spikes: 57%
Reversals: 30%
Average High: 50 pips

---------------------------------------------------------

LEADING INDICATORS
August 17, 2006
10:00 AM EST
Rating: 1 Star
Quality Trades: 44%
True Spikes: 44%
Reversals: 13%
Average High: 34 pips

---------------------------------------------------------

MICHIGAN SENTIMENT
August 18, 2006
9:50 AM EST
Rating: 2 Stars
Quality Trades: 53%
True Spikes: 20%
Reversals: 47%
Average High: 45 pips
Cheers,

Handri Kosada

Weekend Signal

Hi all,
how is your weekend :)

I spent all my time to do crap assignment and project
so boring :D
when I'm tired, I relax abit...
and I open up the chart and did a few analysis on EU and JPN chart


JPN now is under strong bullish
and EU is under weak bearish

so here is my temporary analysis :

EU :

BUY 1.2660 sl 1.2625 TP 1.2750
SELL 1.2780 SL 1.2810 TP 1.2660


JPN :
SELL 117.14 SL 117.50 TP 116.57
BUY 115.79 SL 115.30 TP 116.30

how do you think guys?
please give your comment and we can discuss it everyday :)

Tuesday Night

Hope you make some profit on GU :)

today trade balance is suck
I lost on it :D


the trend I wrote in morning basically means "consolidation"
sorry for using ambiguous words :)

happy trading
tomorrow we'll see how the market is :)

breaking news:
"this afternoon there was a bomb terror in UK airport..."

Thursday Morning

Morning all...

from yesterday trade signal, i can earn 40 pips and i closed it now
as i see for GU, the trend is still bearish


waiting it reachs 1.9080-1.9065 area to SHORT

happy trading

TREND :

EU : bearish
GU : strong bearish
UJ : bullish

Busy Week

sorry due to project and exam week i cant manage to write this blog
ill continue to keep it update as im free

btw today as i see GU charting

it indicates overbought ini 1.9100 level area
so you better sell off in this area specially when the NY market open

goood luck :D

SELL AREA : 1.9100 - 1.9080
TP : 1.9000 area

trade happly and you will get green pips :D

Report Update :)

my indicator read that US bulish is gathering in forex market now
so better reserve and follow the trend or just wait and see for another chance


happy trading

PS. i prefer to closed my trading and SELL GBP/US until UK Manifacturing news 2 hours later

Tuesday Noon

hi,

it seems that my signal was hitted twice (GBP/USD)
you should profit at least 1 pip if you use trailing stop
or TP 15 for ideal

the consolidation is quite strong
so please set your SL

i forget there are also several news from europe this noon
so watch your trading dude

happy trading....

Tuesday Morning Report

morning guys,

now im in library as usualy :)
catching bus, go to school...
what a boring routine :P
ok back to forex review


yesterday there was slow swing movement to uptrend direction in both GBP and EU
they JPN Yen still continues to break its low to the deepest til now

now i have no insight
so i will just wait and see first
any report and trading chance ill report ASAP here

my best suggest is buy the lowest as you can get for cable and euro
(1.8630 for GBP and 1.2739 for EURO)
since it still in the strong bullish momentum
but becareful of consilidation price today
it's quite overbought in daily chart

happy trading :)